Duke modeled curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% annual curtailed energy in 22 US balancing authorities
98 GWmodeled
| Value kind | modeled — Interpret this value according to its displayed kind, scope, source, and as-of date. |
|---|---|
| Scope | First-order model over 22 balancing authorities using 2016–2024 load histories and constant added load. At 0.5% curtailed annual energy, mean event duration is 2.1 hours; 177 hours per year have some curtailment, distinct from about 44 full-load-equivalent hours. Local network capacity, ramping and ramp-feasible reserves are outside the model. |
| Caveat | National modeled potential does not allocate service to a parcel; require the local power-flow/stability study and executable offer. |
| As of | 2025-02-11 |
| Source | Duke University / Nicholas Institute — Norris et al., Rethinking Load Growth, NI R 25-01, February 11, 2025 (Duke Scholars publication record; full paper). · Printed pages 2, 15–16, 18–20 and 23; Appendix C page 38. PDF SHA-256 411ab12b1ae0be8bc4c7878832eb72c91c67ce851d5aaf28d763d75f61e2cbf1. |
| Review | checking…review by 2026-10-29 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 · 2 revisions tracked |
| Claim id | us-flexible-load-integratable-at-0-5-annual |
Where the guide uses it
- 3.2 Grid Access, Large-Load Service & Speed-to-Power
- 3.3 Power Availability & Power-Cost Structure
- 14.7 Capacity, Power & Thermal Management in Operation
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.