US AI-chip export-policy changes in 12 months (Diffusion Rule published → rescinded pending replacement → H20 licensing imposed → selected H20 licenses issued → H200/MI325X China license review moved to case-by-case)
5 regime shiftsobserved
| Value kind | observed — Reported measurements, counts, and specifications keep the precision and scope stated by their source; an exact specification is not treated as a range. |
|---|---|
| Caveat | A sixth outcome followed in mid-2026: Washington licensed H200 sales to ~10 Chinese firms (≤75,000 units each, May 2026) and the binding block moved to Beijing — no chips shipped through June as buyers were steered to the domestic stack; limited imports (~10,000 units each to ByteDance and Tencent) were permitted in August under Beijing-side caps (<200,000 total under discussion) and training-on-public-data-only conditions. |
| As of | Jan 2025–Jan 2026 |
| Source | US BIS notices; SemiAnalysis AI Diffusion analysis |
| Review | checking…review by 2026-09-04 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-06-29 |
| Claim id | us-ai-chip-export-policy-changes-in-12-months |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.