new load the existing US grid can absorb at 0.5% annual curtailment (~44 hr/yr); ~126 GW at 1.0%
~98 GWmodeled
| Value kind | modeled — Interpret this value according to its displayed kind, scope, source, and as-of date. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Modeled national technical potential from a planning study, expressed as full-curtailment-equivalent hours of annual energy (0.5% of annual load ≈ 44 equivalent hours for a constant load) — not event hours, and not a tariff, queue position, or interconnection commitment. Headroom is locational and depletes as loads claim it. |
| Caveat | Modeled headroom from the Duke Nicholas Institute study (Rethinking Load Growth, Feb 2025) across US balancing authorities, not an executable interconnection offer; 0.5% curtailed energy is ~44 full-load-equivalent hours, not a cap on outage duration or event count. |
| As of | 2025-02-11 |
| Source | Duke Nicholas Institute, Rethinking Load Growth, February 2025 |
| Review | checking…review by 2026-11-23 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 · 2 revisions tracked |
| Claim id | new-load-the-existing-us-grid-can-absorb-at-0-5 |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.