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Illustrative independent optical-population event cadence

about 110 s between flaps; about 1 h between hard failuresmodeled

Value kindmodeled — Interpret this value according to its displayed kind, scope, source, and as-of date.
ScopeIllustrative assumed rates, not measured fleet telemetry. Count modules, not duplex links; correlate common-cause faults separately. Event rate becomes job-interruption rate only through topology, recovery and affected-job exposure.
As of2026-03-04
SourceBorrill v1, Table 1 stated component assumptions; guide recomputes the aggregate arithmetic. · Introduction and Table 1; per-optic assumptions ~10^7 h hard-failure MTBF and ~3x10^5 h mean time to flap
DerivationAssume exactly N=10,000,000 optical modules, M_flap=300,000 h and M_hard=10,000,000 h, independent constant rates. M_flap/N*3600=108 s; M_hard/N=1 h. Display rounding: about 110 s and about 1 h.
Reviewchecking…review by 2027-03-01 · standard cadence
Recorded changeslast 2026-09-16 · 4 revisions tracked
Claim idlink-flap-cadence-in-a-10m-optic-fleet-hard

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