Fund the custom program only above its service-volume threshold — conditional result
About $100M base surplus; about 33,000-device threshold (strictly >33,333⅓); −$50M at 30,000; −$80M with the stated delay.derived
| Value kind | derived — Derived values are guide calculations; their result is only as fixed as the stated inputs, scope, and method. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Fixed program cash F = design + software + integration + years × sustaining + delay reserve. Matched saving per device s = merchant − custom variable cost. Base F = $300M + $60M + $40M + 3 × $20M + $40M = $500M; s = $15,000/device. At 40,000 devices, 40,000 × $15,000 − $500M = $100M surplus. Break-even volume F/s = 33,333⅓ devices; the first whole device above it is 33,334. At 30,000 devices the screen is −$50M. A one-year delay leaves 40,000 × 2/3 devices and $480M fixed cash: $400M service savings − $480M = −$80M. These are undiscounted program differences, not an investment valuation. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Synopsys, AI chip silicon-success and verification guidance — method reference; guide-authored hypothetical scenario September 8, 2026. No supplier quote or test measurement. |
| Derivation | Fixed program cash F = design + software + integration + years × sustaining + delay reserve. Matched saving per device s = merchant − custom variable cost. Base F = $300M + $60M + $40M + 3 × $20M + $40M = $500M; s = $15,000/device. At 40,000 devices, 40,000 × $15,000 − $500M = $100M surplus. Break-even volume F/s = 33,333⅓ devices; the first whole device above it is 33,334. At 30,000 devices the screen is −$50M. A one-year delay leaves 40,000 × 2/3 devices and $480M fixed cash: $400M service savings − $480M = −$80M. These are undiscounted program differences, not an investment valuation. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 |
| Claim id | guide2-t29-7-5-result |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.