Retained-fleet finance scenario: debt coverage and separate equity decision — stated inputs
$100m capex; 50% debt; 8.0% rate; 1 construction year; 4 operating/debt years; 1 grace year; $50m receipts ($65m flip); 2-year ramp; 30% opex; 5.0% sustaining; 20% tax; 5-year depreciation; 6-month DSRA; 10% hurdles; 1.30× covenant.modeled
| Value kind | modeled — Interpret this value according to its displayed kind, scope, source, and as-of date. |
|---|---|
| Scope | All money is $ millions. Capex 100 normalizes the scenario; leverage 50%, annual rate 8%, full-use receipts 50 (flip 65), revenue-linked opex 30% and sustaining capital 5%, and cash tax 20% are exact sensitivity constants, not quotes or industry ranges. The receipt cases bracket the equity-NPV zero. Timing conventions: one construction year; four operating/debt years, the first interest-only; two-year linear revenue ramp; five-year straight-line depreciation of base capex; four-year earning life and hold. The earning life is a Chapter 1.8 input. Fund six months of post-grace debt service as DSRA equity at close, release it at exit, and assume no interest or interim draw. Construction draws occur at year end with half-year average debt outstanding for capitalized interest; all operating flows occur at year end. Lender covenant 1.30× and project/equity discount rates 10% are independent preferences. Revenue growth, working-capital change, replacement, merchant tail, enterprise exit value, credits, fees and tax-loss carryforward are zero to isolate the funding bridge. The flip changes only full-use receipts. These conventions define every input; financial results display two significant figures after full-precision arithmetic. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Microsoft — method reference; scenario authored September 8, 2026. Assumed inputs are not publisher observations. |
| Derivation | Exact hypothetical inputs; arithmetic is in the paired result claim. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 |
| Claim id | guide2-t26-finance-bridge-inputs |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.