Retained-fleet finance scenario: debt coverage and separate equity decision
About 1.5× minimum DSCR; −$19m equity NPV; receipts crossover about $64m/yearderived
| Value kind | derived — Derived values are guide calculations; their result is only as fixed as the stated inputs, scope, and method. |
|---|---|
| Scope | All money is $ millions. Calculated amounts and ratios use two significant figures; zero values and year counts are exact. Base debt=100×.50=50; IDC=50×.08×.5=2.0; operating debt=52. Payment=52×.08/(1−1.08⁻³)≈20; DSRA=payment×6/12≈10. Sources and uses each ≈110: 52 debt+50 capex equity+10 reserve equity versus 100 capex+2.0 IDC+10 reserve. For operating years 1/2/3/4, respectively: receipts 25/50/50/50; EBITDA 18/35/35/35; tax 0/2.2/2.4/2.7; sustaining 1.3/2.5/2.5/2.5; interest 4.2/4.2/2.9/1.5; principal 0/16/17/19; CFADS 16/30/30/30; DSCR 3.9/1.5/1.5/1.5; ending debt 52/36/19/0. Full-precision year-2 trace uses EBITDA−(EBITDA−20 depreciation−interest)×.20−sustaining; the displayed ≈30 CFADS divided by ≈20 service is ≈1.5×. Calculations do not use these rounded amounts. Close/construction/operating project cash displays [0,−100,16,30,30,30]; equity cash [−10,−50,12,10,9.9,20], including final reserve release. Discounting full-precision flows at 10% gives project NPV≈−17, equity NPV≈−19; project IRR≈1.7%, equity IRR≈−4.9%. Coverage exceeds the assumed 1.30× covenant, but equity fails. At 65 full-use annual receipts, minimum DSCR≈1.9×, project NPV≈+2.4 and equity NPV≈+0.83; the screen passes. Bisection of equity NPV crosses zero at about 64 annual receipts. This is a sensitivity, not revenue contracted by the guide. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Microsoft — method reference; guide scenario September 8, 2026. Inputs are assumed; results are derived. |
| Derivation | projectFinance: capex100,constructionYears1,leverage50,rate8,term4,revenue50,rampYears2,opex30,taxRate20,deprLife5,sustaining5,revGrowth0,hold4,exitMult0,discount10,dsraMonths6,graceYears1. financeDecision hold4 earningYears4 covenantDSCR1.3. Unrounded min1.476821759503517; equityNPV-18.923793112087637 $m. Revenue65 flips equityNPV to0.8277917895894653, minDSCR1.8559523739736379. Crossover revenue64.37134782319228 $m. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 |
| Claim id | guide2-t26-finance-bridge |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.