Cedar assumed schedule network and P90 productive date
P50: week 60; P90: week 68; latest release: week 2derived
| Value kind | derived — Derived values are guide calculations; their result is only as fixed as the stated inputs, scope, and method. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Exact week-0 enumeration: d/p=0/0, 8/0, 0/16, 8/16 weeks with probabilities .72/.18/.08/.02. Dock=40+d+4; building=42+p; installation=max(dock,building)+6; facility=max(44+d,installation)+4; racking=max(46,building)+2; productive=max(facility,racking)+6. Facility dates 54/62/68/68 and productive dates 60/68/74/74 give cumulative .72/.90/1.00. P50=60, P90=68, Pr(finish≤70)=.90. Base utility float=50−44=6 weeks. Dock need=70−6−4−6=54; selected factory/shipping P90=40+8+4=52; latest release=54−52=week 2. At that release the productive outcomes are 62/70/74/74, still .90 by week 70; week-3 release gives 63/71/74/74 and only .72 by week 70. Crossover at the original week-0 release: 42+p>44+d, hence p>2+d; at the selected week-2 release: p>4+d. The 16-week permit event controls either release, ending at week 74. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | GAO — method reference; guide scenario September 8, 2026. Inputs are assumed; results are derived. |
| Derivation | Enumerate independent d in {0,8}, Pr(d=8)=0.2 and p in {0,16}, Pr(p=16)=0.1; share d across utility and manufacture. Outcomes 60/68/74/74 with probabilities .72/.18/.08/.02. Building controls when p>2+d. Dock need54 less P90 manufacture/shipping52 gives release2. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-09-16 |
| Claim id | guide2-t26-cedar-network |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.