accelerated GPU economic life — contested: bear case 2–3 yr on obsolescence; Goldman Sachs estimates 4–6 yr useful life vs 5–6 yr book
2–3 yr (bear case) vs 4–6 yr (GS)forecastcontested
| Value kind | forecast — Forecasts are time-bound outlooks, not specifications; test decisions across plausible scenarios. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Goldman Sachs characterizes four to six years as the estimated useful life of AI accelerators; it does not substantiate a general two-to-three-year economic life or a universal 20–40% three-year residual value. |
| As of | 2026 |
| Source | Goldman Sachs Global Institute, Tracking Trillions (April 2026), for the 4–6 yr useful life; Michael Burry (November 2025, reported by CNBC 2025-11-11) for the 2–3 yr bear case · Assumption 1: The Economic Useful Life of AI Chips |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-01 · fast cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-10-05 · 5 revisions tracked |
| Claim id | accelerated-economic-life-vs-5-6-yr-book-life |
Where the guide uses it
- 1.1 The Archetype Decision Framework: Workload Is the Master Variable
- 7.2 NVIDIA Accelerators: Hopper → Blackwell → Vera Rubin → Rubin Ultra → Feynman
- 10.3 Multi-Tenancy, Isolation & Resource Sharing
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.