AI data centers in Texas & ERCOT
ERCOT's energy-only market and co-location with West Texas wind, solar, and gas can create project-specific power paths — priced in exposure to scarcity pricing, curtailment economics, and grid-islanding risk that the design basis must own.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Access, Large-Load Service & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Texas & ERCOT in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| HARC estimated Texas data-center water consumption, 2025 (direct cooling + electricity generation) · Ch 3.7 | ~25 bn gal/yr | January 2026 report; 2025 estimate | HARC, Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State, January 2026 |
| Texas Senate projection of sales-tax revenue forgone under the qualifying data-center exemptions in the 2028–29 biennium · Ch 3.10 | ~$3.3B (2028–29 projection) | 2026-10-12 | Texas Senate Committee on Finance, 89th Legislature interim charge: Data Center Investment and State Fiscal Effects |
| ERCOT issued Batch Zero Conditional Classification to service providers, subject to verification and cure conditions · Ch 3.2 | September 3, 2026: conditional classification issued | 2026-09-03 | ERCOT, Notice M-A080326-04 (September 3, 2026); State and Community Impact RFI, Notice M-B091426-01 (September 14, 2026). Direct retrieval of the September 3 notice returned 403 on September 8; the event is confirmed by the official notice archive. |
| on-site gas LCOE must be modeled for the named plant from heat rate, gas price, capacity factor, capex and financing, O&M, emissions and permits, interconnection and standby costs | Project-specific LCOE | 2026-08-24 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| large-load interconnection requests ERCOT is tracking (~90% data centers; arc: 63 → 233 → 438 → 474 GW; more than 5x ERCOT's record peak demand). Batch Zero paused 2026-08-03 by gubernatorial directive; conditional classification issued 2026-09-03 · Ch 3.1 | ~474 GW | 2026-08 | Abbott directive letter (2026-08-03, ~474 GW / ~90% DC); prior print 438+ GW (ERCOT, 2026-06-18). BNEF estimates the pause could delay ~50 GW. Operating sites unaffected. |
| Average retail electricity price for Texas commercial customers, statewide, July 2026; second-lowest of the US states · Ch 3.3 | 8.47¢/kWh | 2026-07 | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A; July 2026 observation, released September 24, 2026 |
| ERCOT 'large load' threshold forcing full interconnection + protection study (25 MW = modeling) · Ch 4.2 | 75 MW | 2026 | ERCOT Large Load Integration; SB6 |
| ERCOT's June 2025 forecast of non-crypto data center load in 2028; 25.0 GW in 2030 · Ch 3.1 | ~16.8 GW | 2025-06-11 forecast | ERCOT, Pablo Vegas responses to congressional questions, 11 June 2025 (Non-Crypto column of the ERCOT Data Center Load table) |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025-02-11 | Duke Nicholas Institute, Rethinking Load Growth, February 2025 |
| planned Stargate capacity across the Abilene flagship + five new US sites — multi-campus by necessity, not choice · Ch 8.8 | ~7 GW | 2025 | OpenAI / Data Center Frontier |
| Texas Chapter 312 property-tax abatement of eligible incremental property value, locally negotiated for up to 10 years · Ch 3.10 | up to 100% | 2025 | Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts |
Regulatory watchlist
| Rule | Threshold | Status / next action | Source | Verified | Review by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (Texas) — ERCOT Planning Guide §9 / PGRR145 — Batch Zero large-load integration | New load ≥75 MW; existing-load increase ≥75 MW; specified point-of-interconnection changes | Batch Zero implemented; PUCT SB 6 rulemaking remains a separate live process Next: Track Batch Zero studies and PUCT Project 58481 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 |
What this means for your schedule
After the governor ordered a project-by-project audit of data centers, ERCOT paused Batch Zero classification and studies and said it will not let new data-center loads energize until verification is complete. The conditional classification issued since is not a study result, a service offer or permission to energize, and ERCOT says the Batch Zero study will miss its original target date. Until the audit and the study clear, obtain for each ERCOT project the applicable large-load study path, host-utility agreement, upgrade scope, curtailment obligations, power rights, and dated milestones; neither a market label nor co-location guarantees an earlier service date. The design basis must also own scarcity-hour economics, SB6 curtailment orders, which the serving transmission utility carries out and the site meets by shedding load or running on-site generation (NOGRR282 ride-through, now in effect, is a separate duty), and West Texas water reality. Budget the hedge strategy with the same seriousness as the substation.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target. Use your host utility's dated service milestones and your own need-by dates to see which packages are late; regional queue totals do not set your connection date.