Regional guides › Texas & ERCOT
AI data centers in Texas & ERCOT
ERCOT's energy-only market, fast interconnection paths, and co-location with West Texas wind, solar, and gas make it the speed play — priced in exposure to scarcity pricing, curtailment economics, and grid-islanding risk that the design basis must own.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Interconnection, Queues & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Texas & ERCOT in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US large-load grid interconnection lead time end-to-end; up to ~10 yr in the worst queues — the binding constraint · Ch 0.1 | ~3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| large-load grid interconnection lead time — volatile and region-dependent; up to ~10 yr in worst queues · Ch 0.2 | 3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| US large-load grid interconnection lead time end-to-end; up to ~10 yr in worst queues — the gate behind self-build · Ch 1.6 | ~3–7+ yr | 2026 | LBNL Queued Up; ERCOT / PJM filings |
| large-load grid interconnection, application to energization; up to ~10 yr in the worst queues · Ch 2.1 | 3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| large-load grid interconnection lead time the LGIA/ISA milestones must bind around; up to ~10 yr worst queues · Ch 2.4 | ~3-7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| ERCOT large-load interconnection queue, early 2026 (~87% data centers; ~4x YoY) · Ch 3.1 | ~410 GW | 2026 | RTO Insider / Latitude Media / ERCOT |
| large-load interconnection end-to-end; PJM application-to-COD has exceeded 8 yr; up to ~10 yr in worst queues · Ch 3.2 | 3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| ERCOT large-load queue end-2025 (~300% YoY); ~198 GW screened Q1 2026, ~70%+ data centers · Ch 3.2 | 233+ GW | 2026 | ERCOT / Utility Dive |
| Texas/ERCOT commercial rate — among the lowest in the US on the deregulated market · Ch 3.3 | ~8.7¢/kWh | 2026 | Electric Choice |
| large-load interconnection lead time; up to ~10 yr in worst queues — the availability gate · Ch 3.3 | ~3-7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| grid interconnection lead time (large load); PJM application-to-COD over 8 yr; up to ~10 yr worst queues · Ch 3.4 | 3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| industrial gas-fired LCOE for on-site/BTM power, above projected ERCOT grid prices · Ch 3.4 | >~$120/MWh | 2026 | domain synthesis (ISO/EPRI) |
| Texas average data-center water intensity; ~49 bn gal statewide by end-2025 · Ch 3.7 | ~793 gal/MWh | 2025 | Texas analyses (Inside Climate News / industry) |
| large-load grid interconnection lead time; up to ~10 yr in worst queues — the usual long pole · Ch 3.9 | ~3-7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| Texas sales-tax revenue forgone to the data-center exemption (~$1B+/yr) · Ch 3.10 | ~$3.2B / 2 yr | 2026 | Texas Comptroller; Texas Tribune |
| Texas property-tax abatement tiers over 10 yr; Virginia local reductions reach ~80% · Ch 3.10 | 50% or 75% | 2025 | Texas Comptroller; domain synthesis |
| Texas/ERCOT data center demand by 2028 (~1/3 of projected US demand); large-load queue grew ~300% YoY · Ch 3.13 | ~40 GW | 2026 | domain-research synthesis; ERCOT filings |
| ERCOT 'large load' threshold forcing full interconnection + protection study (25 MW = modeling) · Ch 4.2 | 75 MW | 2026 | ERCOT Large Load Integration; SB6 |
| large-load grid interconnection lead time end-to-end; up to ~10 yr in worst queues · Ch 4.3 | 3–7+ yr | 2025 | ERCOT / PJM filings synthesis |
| ERCOT Large Load site threshold; "Large Electronic Load" = ≥50% power-electronic computational demand (NPRR1234 / NPRR1308) · Ch 4.10 | ≥75 MW / ≥50% | 2025 | ERCOT NPRR1234, NOGRR 282 |
Regulatory watchlist
| Rule | Threshold | Status | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (Federal) — SEC climate-disclosure rule — 2024 rule subject to 2026 rescission proposal | registrants (phased) | PROPOSED RESCISSION — enforcement uncertain | 2026-06 |
| US (California) — SB 253 (GHG disclosure) + SB 261 (climate-financial-risk disclosure) | rev. >$1B (253) / >$500M (261) | Enacted, phasing in | 2026-06 |
| US (Texas) — ERCOT large-load interconnection — process & curtailable/large-load terms evolving (SB-driven) | large loads (e.g. >75 MW) | Evolving | 2026-06 |
| US / multi — BIS advanced-compute export controls — periodic tightening affecting accelerator availability & data residency | advanced GPUs/HBM | Evolving | 2026-06 |