AI data centers in Texas & ERCOT
ERCOT's energy-only market, fast interconnection paths, and co-location with West Texas wind, solar, and gas make it the speed play — priced in exposure to scarcity pricing, curtailment economics, and grid-islanding risk that the design basis must own.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Interconnection, Queues & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Texas & ERCOT in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas average commercial retail electricity price — among the lowest in the US (statewide all-in average; competitive-supply quotes in deregulated ERCOT territories run lower) · Ch 3.3 | ~8.4¢/kWh | Apr 2026 | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A |
| large-load requests ERCOT is tracking (~89% data centers; 63 GW end-2024 → 233 GW end-2025 → 438 GW Jun 2026) · Ch 3.1 | 438+ GW | 2026-06 | ERCOT news release (18 Jun 2026) |
| ERCOT 'large load' threshold forcing full interconnection + protection study (25 MW = modeling) · Ch 4.2 | 75 MW | 2026 | ERCOT Large Load Integration; SB6 |
| industrial gas-fired LCOE for on-site/BTM power, above projected ERCOT grid prices · Ch 3.4 | >~$120/MWh | 2026 | ISO/EPRI |
| Texas sales-tax revenue forgone to the data-center exemption (~$1B+/yr) · Ch 3.10 | ~$3.2B / 2 yr | 2026 | Texas Comptroller; Texas Tribune |
| US large-load grid interconnection lead time end-to-end; up to ~10 yr in worst queues — the gate behind self-build · Ch 0.1 | ~3–7+ yr | 2026 | LBNL Queued Up; ERCOT / PJM filings |
| projected ERCOT data-center load in 2028; the same forecast reaches approximately 40.1 GW in 2030 · Ch 3.13 | ~28.2 GW | 2025-12-15 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025 | Duke Nicholas Institute (via Utility Dive) |
| planned Stargate capacity across the Abilene flagship + five new US sites — multi-campus by necessity, not choice · Ch 8.8 | ~7 GW | 2025 | OpenAI / Data Center Frontier |
| Texas average data-center water intensity; ~49 bn gal statewide by end-2025 · Ch 3.7 | ~793 gal/MWh | 2025 | Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), 'Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State' |
| Texas Chapter 312 property-tax abatement of eligible incremental property value, locally negotiated for up to 10 years · Ch 3.10 | up to 100% | 2025 | Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts |
Regulatory watchlist
| Rule | Threshold | Status | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (Texas) — ERCOT large-load interconnection — process & curtailable/large-load terms evolving (SB-driven) | large loads (e.g. >75 MW) | Evolving | 2026-06 |
What this means for your schedule
ERCOT is the speed play: the interconnection figures above are the shortest in this table, and behind-the-meter co-location shortens them further. What you buy with that speed: the design basis must own scarcity-hour economics, an SB6-class curtailment response (ride-through, on-site generation, or workload shedding), and West Texas water reality. Budget the hedge strategy with the same seriousness as the substation.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target — the queue figures above set which packages are already late.