AI data centers in Texas & ERCOT
ERCOT's energy-only market and co-location with West Texas wind, solar, and gas can create project-specific power paths — priced in exposure to scarcity pricing, curtailment economics, and grid-islanding risk that the design basis must own.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Access, Large-Load Service & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Texas & ERCOT in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERCOT issued Batch Zero Conditional Classification to service providers, subject to verification and cure conditions · Ch 3.2 | September 3, 2026: conditional classification issued | 2026-09-03 | ERCOT — Notice M-A080326-04, September 3, 2026; event confirmed by the official notice archive. Direct notice retrieval returned 403 on September 8. |
| on-site gas LCOE must be modeled for the named plant from heat rate, gas price, capacity factor, capex and financing, O&M, emissions and permits, interconnection and standby costs | Project-specific LCOE | 2026-08-24 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| large-load interconnection requests ERCOT is tracking (~90% data centers; arc: 63 → 233 → 438 → 474 GW; more than 5x ERCOT's record peak demand). Batch Zero paused 2026-08-03 by gubernatorial directive; conditional classification issued 2026-09-03 · Ch 3.1 | ~474 GW | 2026-08 | Abbott directive letter (2026-08-03, ~474 GW / ~90% DC); prior print 438+ GW (ERCOT, 2026-06-18). BNEF estimates the pause could delay ~50 GW. Operating sites unaffected. |
| Texas sales-tax revenue forgone to the data-center exemption (~$1B+/yr) · Ch 3.10 | ~$3.3B / biennium | 2026-07 | Texas Comptroller via Senate Finance hearing (2026-07-27); Texas Tribune; Holland & Knight |
| Texas average commercial retail electricity price — among the lowest in the US (statewide all-in average; competitive-supply quotes in deregulated ERCOT territories run lower) · Ch 3.3 | ~8.4¢/kWh | 2026-04 | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A |
| ERCOT 'large load' threshold forcing full interconnection + protection study (25 MW = modeling) · Ch 4.2 | 75 MW | 2026 | ERCOT Large Load Integration; SB6 |
| projected ERCOT data-center load in 2028; the same forecast reaches approximately 40.1 GW in 2030 · Ch 3.1 | ~28.2 GW | 2025-12-15 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025-02-11 | Duke Nicholas Institute, Rethinking Load Growth, February 2025 |
| planned Stargate capacity across the Abilene flagship + five new US sites — multi-campus by necessity, not choice · Ch 8.8 | ~7 GW | 2025 | OpenAI / Data Center Frontier |
| Texas average data-center water intensity; ~49 bn gal statewide by end-2025 · Ch 3.7 | ~793 gal/MWh | 2025 | Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), 'Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State' |
| Texas Chapter 312 property-tax abatement of eligible incremental property value, locally negotiated for up to 10 years · Ch 3.10 | up to 100% | 2025 | Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts |
Regulatory watchlist
| Rule | Threshold | Status / next action | Source | Verified | Review by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (Texas) — ERCOT Planning Guide §9 / PGRR145 — Batch Zero large-load integration | New load ≥75 MW; existing-load increase ≥75 MW; specified point-of-interconnection changes | Batch Zero implemented; PUCT SB 6 rulemaking remains a separate live process Next: Track Batch Zero studies and PUCT Project 58481 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 |
What this means for your schedule
After the governor ordered a project-by-project audit of data centers, ERCOT paused Batch Zero classification and studies and said it will not let new data-center loads energize until verification is complete. The conditional classification issued since is not a study result, a service offer or permission to energize, and ERCOT says the Batch Zero study will miss its original target date. Until the audit and the study clear, obtain for each ERCOT project the applicable large-load study path, host-utility agreement, upgrade scope, curtailment obligations, power rights, and dated milestones; neither a market label nor co-location guarantees an earlier service date. The design basis must also own scarcity-hour economics, an SB6-class curtailment response (ride-through, on-site generation, or workload shedding), and West Texas water reality. Budget the hedge strategy with the same seriousness as the substation.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target. Use your host utility's dated service milestones and your own need-by dates to see which packages are late; regional queue totals do not set your connection date.