Regional guides › Northern Virginia & PJM
AI data centers in Northern Virginia & PJM
The densest data-center market on earth sits inside PJM, where interconnection queues, transmission buildout, and county-level land-use politics now set the pace — not capital. Data-center alley's grid position makes speed-to-power the defining regional constraint.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Interconnection, Queues & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Northern Virginia & PJM in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia data-center sales-and-use tax exemption benefit reported for FY2025; the Senate's proposed Jan 2027 phase-out was not adopted — the final 2026 budget retained the exemption · Ch 3.10 | ~$1.94B (FY2025) | Jul 2026 | Virginia Department of Taxation, DCRSUT Exemption Report (RD40, 2026) |
| data-center share of PJM's $16.4B capacity-auction cost — the cost-shift driver · Ch 3.11 | ~$6.5B (40%) | 2026 | PJM market monitor; Utility Dive |
| large-load interconnection waits in top hubs (N. Virginia, Phoenix, Dallas); median project ~5 yr in queue · Ch 8.8 | 4–7 yr | 2026 | LBNL / utility filings synthesis |
| new Virginia data-center electricity consumption tax (effective Jul 1 2026, sunsets Jul 1 2028) — an added cost line · Ch 3.3 | $0.011/kWh | 2026 | Virginia HB30 (2026 budget, Item 3-5.24); Data Center Knowledge |
| Northern Virginia market size 2026 (operational + pipeline); ~96% of 2026 scheduled supply already committed, vacancy near zero · Ch 3.13 | ~20 GW | 2026 | CBRE / Mordor Intelligence; Loudoun County |
| PJM interconnection deposits committed before the design is frozen: a fixed study deposit (hundreds of thousands, non-refundable once the request completes) plus a $15k/MW readiness deposit -- not a percentage · Ch 2.1 | $500k study + $15k/MW | 2026 | PJM large-load Expedited Interconnection Track filing / Inside Lines |
| typical residential bill increase attributed in part to data-center demand (Dominion; PJM hubs $16-18/mo) · Ch 3.11 | ~$16/mo | 2026 | Inside Climate News; IEEFA |
| US large-load grid interconnection lead time end-to-end; up to ~10 yr in worst queues — the gate behind self-build · Ch 0.1 | ~3–7+ yr | 2026 | LBNL Queued Up; ERCOT / PJM filings |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025 | Duke Nicholas Institute (via Utility Dive) |
| FERC PJM co-location order: 3 new transmission services; BTM transition to Dec 18, 2028 · Ch 15.8 | Dec 18, 2025 | 2025 | FERC; Baker Botts / Utility Dive synthesis |
| PJM application-to-commercial-operation timeline (vs <2 yr in 2008) · Ch 3.1 | >8 yr | 2025 | RMI / PJM filings |
| PJM contract-demand transmission services (firm / non-firm / interim non-firm) created by FERC co-location order, compliance from early 2026, ~2028 transition · Ch 3.4 | 3 new | 2025 | FERC order Dec 18, 2025 |
| data-center load dropped in the six-fault, 82-second July-2024 Northern Virginia disturbance — the failure independent Cx and OE exist to prevent · Ch 2.2 | ~1.5 GW in 82 s | 2024-07 (event); 2026 (alert) | NERC incident review / Level 3 Alert (2026); Utility Dive |
| of projects requesting interconnection 2000–2018 (LBNL-tracked US queues) had reached commercial operation by end-2023 — 14% by capacity; most of the rest withdrew · Ch 3.2 | ~19% | 2024 | LBNL, Queued Up: 2024 Edition |
| potable water used by Loudoun County (VA) data centers in 2023 (~250% increase) · Ch 15.4 | ~899M gal | 2023 | Loudoun Water; Nixon Peabody |
What this means for your schedule
For a 2027–28 energization, an existing interconnection position (yours or acquired) is effectively the only path — the queue and withdrawal statistics in the table above are the base case, not the downside. Treat county land-use approval as a schedule item with its own critical path, and watch the FERC co-location dockets: they decide whether generator-adjacent siting shortcuts the queue at all.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target — the queue figures above set which packages are already late.