AI data centers in Northern Virginia & PJM
The densest data-center market on earth sits inside PJM, where interconnection queues, transmission buildout, and county-level land-use politics now set the pace — not capital. Data-center alley's grid position makes speed-to-power the defining regional constraint.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Access, Large-Load Service & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Northern Virginia & PJM in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Virginia data center inventory tracked by CBRE at the end of 2025, with about 96% of 2026 scheduled supply already committed and vacancy at 0.5% · Ch 3.13 | ~4,040 MW | end-2025 (CBRE release 18 March 2026) | CBRE, North America Data Center Trends H2 2025 (press release, 18 March 2026) |
| Share of generation/storage capacity requesting interconnection in 2000-2020 that reached commercial operation by end-2025; 75% withdrew (LBNL, Queued Up: 2026 Edition) · Ch 3.2 | 13% | end-2025 | LBNL, Queued Up: 2026 Edition |
| data-center share of PJM's $16.4B capacity-auction cost — the cost-shift driver · Ch 3.11 | ~$6.3B (38%) | 2026-07-20 | Monitoring Analytics (Joseph Bowring), reported by Utility Dive, July 20, 2026 |
| Virginia data-center sales-and-use tax exemption benefit reported for FY2025; the final 2026 budget retained the exemption and added a separate data-center electricity consumption tax · Ch 3.10 | ~$1.94B (FY2025) | 2026-07 | Virginia Department of Taxation, DCRSUT Exemption Report (RD40, 2026) |
| Virginia data-center electricity consumption tax, gross rate, July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2028 · Ch 3.3 | $0.011/kWh | 2026-06-29 | Virginia HB30, 2026 Special Session I, Chapter 1, adopted June 29, 2026, Item 3-5.24 |
| PJM generation EIT study and readiness deposits under the tariff accepted June 9, 2026 · Ch 2.1 | $500k study + $15k/MW | 2026-06-09 | FERC June 9, 2026 order, ER26-1563-000; accepted Part X effective July 31, 2026. |
| PJM transmission services for co-located load (interim non-firm, Firm Contract Demand, Non-Firm Contract Demand), ordered by FERC 18 Dec 2025; rates and terms set on rehearing/compliance 18 Jun 2026, further tariff compliance due ~Aug 2026 · Ch 3.4 | 3 new | 2026-06 | FERC, PJM Interconnection, 193 FERC ¶ 61,217 (18 Dec 2025) and 195 FERC ¶ 61,209 (18 Jun 2026), Docket EL25-49 |
| FERC PJM co-location order: 3 new transmission services; BTM transition to Dec 18, 2028 · Ch 15.8 | Dec 18, 2025 | 2025-12-18 | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, December 18, 2025 fact sheet on PJM co-location; primary-source account of the three-service direction. |
| added to a typical Dominion residential bill in 2026 by the approved base-rate change · Ch 3.11 | $11.24/mo | 2025-11-25 | Virginia SCC, 2025 Dominion biennial review, November 25, 2025 |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025-02-11 | Duke Nicholas Institute, Rethinking Load Growth, February 2025 |
| PJM generator interconnection: application-to-commercial-operation timeline (vs <2 yr in 2008); a generation statistic, not a large-load service timeline · Ch 3.1 | >8 yr | 2025 | RMI / PJM filings |
| data-center load withdrawn from the grid as sites transferred to backup during the six-fault, 82-second Northern Virginia disturbance on July 10, 2024 · Ch 2.2 | ~1.5 GW in 82 s | 2024-07 | NERC incident review / Level 3 Alert (2026); Utility Dive |
| potable water used by Loudoun County (VA) data centers in 2023 (~250% increase) · Ch 15.4 | ~899M gal | 2023 | Loudoun Water; Nixon Peabody |
What this means for your schedule
For a near-term energization, require the host utility to name the applicable load-study path, service agreement, upgrade scope, power rights, and dated milestones; generator-queue statistics do not establish that schedule. Treat county land-use approval as a separate critical path, and watch the FERC co-location dockets because generator-adjacent service still depends on the approved project structure.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target. Use your host utility's dated service milestones and your own need-by dates to see which packages are late; regional queue totals do not set your connection date.